Boom! It’s Monday.
Let’s hit the ground running in China, where we got a raft of econ data overnight. People like bullet points, especially when they’ve got a vacation hangover, so here’s the quick take:
Right, so the most important thing about all of that is that it gives the PBoC some breathing room when it comes to staying the course with regard to the tightening bias.
Or, put differently, think about all of the data points above in the context of what we said on Sunday night in “Here’s The Most Important Thing You Missed On Friday.”
“[This] makes the problem of excess leverage look a little more manageable – at least as long as factory reflation stays strong,” BI economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen said on Monday.
But see there’s another problem. Recall that we talked a bit about factory reflation in China last week in a post called “Goldman Delivers A ‘Real’ity Check.” Here’s what Goldman said earlier this month:
China’s industrial sector has been reflating strongly, with PPI running at over a 10% annualized pace. This has driven nominal growth higher and contributed to the recent surge in industrial profits. As such, we also expect the authorities to rein in leverage further on any major upside growth surprise, dampening any “animal spirits” effect and putting a speed limit on growth.
Well, witness your “upside surprise” in today’s econ data. Now let’s see how long it takes the PBoC to hike repo rates again and pull back on the liquidity injections.
As we noted Sunday evening following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “big league” referendum in Turkey, the lira surged against the dollar. You’re going to be hearing a lot about this today, especially if you know anyone who cares about emerging markets.
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