French Exit Polls: Macron Wins First Round 23.7%, Le Pen 21.7%

According to the exit polls, Macron leads with 23.7%, Le Pen with 21%. Well behind, Fillon and Melenchon are tied with 19.5%. French exit polls are relatively reliable as they use real data.

It seems that neither Fillon nor Melenchon can beat Macron and push him out of the second round. Le Pen could eventually surpass Macron: 2% is not a big gap. However, it would take either Melenchon or Fillon a 4%+ rise to push Macron down, not necessarily out.

This is a favorable result for markets. EUR/USD should rise. According to polls, Macron leads Le Pen in a run-off with around 25 to 30 basis points. Macron is a pro-market, pro-Europe centrist.

Socialist candidate Hamon received only around 6% according to the polls. Another candidate received around 4-5%. We now await the real results. Counting in France is relatively quick.

More: Trading the French Elections with EUR/USD – 4 scenarios

— more coming

Contrary to many other countries, exit polls in France use real data. Around 200 polling stations that close at 19:00 local time are selected. The real votes are counted, compared with previous results and enter a formula.

The exit poll data that is published is relatively accurate as it is based on real data and has been improved since its inception in 1965. Nonetheless, with a very close race, it may not be accurate enough.

Earlier, the Belgian television reported that exit polls show Macron and Le Pen make it to the second round. They released their publication before the French media was allowed to announce anything and without stating any numbers.

According to that, Macron led with 24%, Le Pen had 22%, Fillon at 20.5% and Melenchon at 18%. Exit polls do not necessarily reflect real trading. According to one paper, Macron is shoe-in for the second round.