Futures Flat, Global Stocks Higher As Dollar Resumes Rise

Until the announcement moments ago by the EU that Apple have been ordered to pay up to €13 billion in illegal tax benefits, the quiet overnight market had been focused on the upcoming comments by Stanley Fischer, who is set to give a Bloomberg TV interview at 6:30am ET, where he was expected to expand on his recent hawkish comments. Heading into Fischer’s appearance, the dollar strengthened, global stocks rose, oil hovered around $47, while US index futures were largely flat and Treasuries fell.

Between Fischer and this Friday’s payrolls report, there is hope on Wall Street that the Fed’s rate hike expectations will be made more definitive. “Expectations for a Fed rate increase are still driving the markets, as players await Fischer’s comments,” said Yuji Saito, head of the foreign-exchange department at Credit Agricole SA in Tokyo. While yesterday Fischer’s Friday announcement was largely forgotten, the hawkish mood has returned today and the the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a three-week high ahead of Fischer, who last week suggested that interest rates may rise as soon as September.

“Views on the U.S. interest-rate hike have eased a little after a day’s passed, and it’s difficult to see a clear direction ahead of the U.S. jobs data,” said Seiichi Miura, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “There’s a profit-taking mood in the Japanese stock market after the surge yesterday. That said, there’s not enough of a reason to keep selling.”

Speculation the U.S. will raise interest rates this year surged over the past two weeks, boosting the dollar, as Fed officials including Chair Janet Yellen said the case for tightening policy is getting stronger. As Bloomberg notes, after a report on Monday showed consumer spending rose for a fourth month, investors will be looking at data on consumer confidence on Tuesday and monthly payrolls figures later in the week to judge if the economy is strong enough to support higher rates.

European stocks rose after banks, technology shares and automakers led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.5%. Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna SC and UniCredit SpA advanced more than 2.8 percent, sending Italy’s FTSE MIB Index 1.6 percent higher for the biggest gain among western-European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index was little changed, reopening after a holiday on Monday. Futures on S&P 500 Index were down 2 points, driven largely by the Apple tax announcement, after the index rallied the most in three weeks on Monday. Mondelez International Inc. climbed 3.2 percent in early New York trading after saying it’s walking away from takeover discussions with Hershey Co. two months after its $23 billion bid was rejected by the chocolate maker. Hershey sank 12 percent in late trading on Monday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 0.5 percent, rebounding from a three-week low. Energy shares led gains, while benchmarks in Hong Kong and India climbed more than 1 percent.

The yield on U.S. government debt due in a decade increased by three basis points to 1.59 percent, after dropping seven basis points on Monday. The rate on two-year notes increased by one basis point to 0.82 percent. The Fed is “likely to tighten in September, at least as long as the jobs number comes in OK,” Michael Pond, head of global inflation market strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said on Bloomberg Television. “Hawkish Fed rhetoric has certainly increased recently. It’ll take a decent number, like 200,000, for them to go.”

U.K. longer-dated bonds were supported before the Bank of England’s latest purchase operation as part of its expanded quantitative-easing program. Thirty-year gilt yields fell two basis points to 1.25 percent. “There are real doubts over how many sellers will turn up,” Ciaran O’Hagan, head of European rates strategy at Societe Generale SA in Paris, wrote in a client note.

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