Note: This data marks the period ending Tuesday, April 4th.
EURUSD
Non-Commercials increased their net short positions in the Euro last week selling a further 4k contract to take the total position to – 11.4k contracts. The large EUR short position has been steadily reduced over the last six months as ECB easing expectations have faded and the Fed has disappointed USD bulls.
This week marks the official start of the French election campaign which is likely to direct EUR price action. The far-right candidate is widely expected to lose the campaign so any uptick in support for her, as shown via polls, is likely to weigh on EUR which should otherwise be supported by a victory for centrist candidate Macron.
On the data front this week, euro area industrial production is the only noteworthy release. On the US side, we have consumer and producer inflation, retail sales and U. of Michigan consumer confidence.
GBPUSD
Non-Commercials reduced their net short positions in Sterling last week buying 4.5k contracts to take the total position to – 100k contracts. Momentum has stalled in GBP as traders await the first official details regarding the Brexit negotiations which will be released following a summit at the end of the month.
Despite the triggering of Article 50, GBP has remained supported as data releases continue to suggest an increasing risk of the BOE tightening. On the data front this week we have seen another strong print for UK CPI which came in at 1.8% in March on the core print and 2.3% on the headline reading. Looking ahead we have labor market reports on Wednesday as well as a speaking event by BOE chief Carney.
USDJPY
Non-Commercials reduced their net short positions in the Japanese Yen last week buying 7k contracts to take the total position to -46k contracts. JPY has been steadily bought over the last three weeks as weak risk sentiment, softer US yields and increased geopolitical concerns have seen a safe-haven bid kick in.
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