FX Markets Turn To US CPI & Retail Sales, Kiwi GDP, SNB Rate Decision

Talking Points:

The US Dollar slipped after the February NFP report, drawing into question how intense inflation pressures actually are; the February CPI report will shine light onto this topic on Tuesday.

Now that the Bank of Japan has signaled a potential timeline to end its extraordinary easing measures, will the Swiss National Bank take the mantle of the world’s most dovish central bank?

Retail trader positioning remains mixed as measures of volatility continue to stay elevated.

03/13 Tuesday | 13:30 GMT | USD Consumer Price Index (FEB)

According to a Bloomberg News survey, US consumer prices continued to climb in February, albeit at a slower pace than previous months. The headline is due in at +0.1% from +0.5% (m/m) and +2.2% from +2.1% (y/y). The core readings should be similar, at +0.2% from +0.3% (m/m), and at +1.8% unch (y/y). These figures aggregately have started to steady near the Fed’s medium-term target, adding evidence to an already-convinced market that the Fed will hike rates in March (100% implied probability per overnight index swaps). Considering the sensitivity the greenback has had to wage growth figures – implicitly, price pressures – the US CPI report on Wednesday could be the most important data release of the week for the US Dollar. Expect the US Dollar to follow US Treasury yields around the data.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY Index, Gold

03/13 Tuesday | 14:30 GMT | CAD BOC Governor Poloz Speech

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech is in focus given all the drama surrounding the Canadian Dollar. At their meeting in the first full week of March, the BOC made clear its hesitation to raise rates again in the first half of 2018 thanks to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the NAFTA renegotiations. That said, Canadian data has hit a soft patch in recent weeks, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index down to -36.4. So while the uncertainty around NAFTA may be a convenient cover for the BOC to ease off of its hawkish bias (May rate hike odds have fallen from near 80% at the start of February to 55% on March 9), other factors may now be coming into play.