FX Week Ahead: Inflation, Retail Sales And GDP

Inflation, retail sales and GDP mark the major theme for the week ahead. The UK will be releasing the monthly inflation figures for January followed by retail sales data later in the week. The inflation data will come after the BoE voted to keep rates unchanged. Retail sales figures will be closely watched data as the previous month showed a 1.5% decline.

In the U.S. the monthly consumer price index data will be coming out this week alongside the retail sales numbers. For the Eurozone, the flash GDP figures will mark the second revised GDP for the fourth quarter. No changes are expected as the Eurozone GDP is forecast to have grown 0.6% during the quarter.

Here’s a quick recap of the key inflation, retail sales and GDP events due this week.

UK Inflation expected to ease for a second consecutive month

Following the Bank of England’s decision to leave monetary policy unchanged at the meeting last week, focus turns to inflation data this week. The UK will be reporting the monthly inflation data on Monday. According to the economists polled, UK’s consumer prices are expected to ease to 2.9% in January. This follows December’s 3.0% inflation rise.

Consumer prices are expected to rise at a slower pace in January and marks a second consecutive month of slower inflation. Consumer prices had previously peaked at 3.1% in November. The Bank of England had hiked interest rates in November as inflation surged strongly. The 25 basis point rate hike came as officials tried to contain the strong inflation growth.

Consumer prices in the UK remain stubbornly above the BoE’s 2% inflation target rate. At last week’s meeting, the BoE Governor signaled that interest rates could rise faster than it expected. The markets brought forward the rate hike expectations from August to May. This will potentially mark a second rate hike after the Brexit event in June 2016.

U.S. consumer prices and retail sales in focus