FX Week Ahead: US GDP, ECB & BoJ Meetings

The week ahead will open in the backdrop of the French elections which will be the main overriding theme. Monday is a bank holiday in Australia and New Zealand.

Traders will be focusing on the ECB and the BoJ’s meetings this week. No changes are expected from both these meetings this week with the respective central bank chiefs likely to reiterate that monetary policy will remain accommodative and appropriate to the current conditions.

The U.S. advance GDP report will be coming out this week for the first quarter of 2017, while Australia will be reporting on the quarterly inflation numbers. Here’s a brief preview of this week’s economic events.

U.S. first quarter GDP expected to slow

Economic data from the United States next week will focus on the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Economists are expecting to see the first quarter GDP rise 1.2% at an annual rate. This expected to be significantly lower than the 2.1% increase registered in the fourth quarter of 2016.

U.S. GDP Growth Rate: 2.1%

The first quarter GDP growth in the U.S. is typically weak on a seasonal basis, and thus, the trend is expected to continue. However, for the market participants, this could be a bit of recalibration on the expectations from the Federal Reserve.

Besides the GDP data, the focus will also be on the employment cost index (ECI) for the first quarter. This is likely to be a more important factor for the markets as the Fed will be looking at the amount of slack in the labor market during the three months ending March.

Private industry wages increased 2.5% on year over year basis in the fourth quarter of 2016

The U.S. durable goods orders will also be released this week with estimates showing a 0.5% increase on the core durable goods orders and a 1.5% increase on the headline print.

European central bank expected to stay on the sidelines

With the French elections results from the first round in the background, the European central bank’s monetary policy meeting this week is expected to remain a non-event as interest rates and QE is expected to remain unchanged at this week’s meeting.