GBP/USD dropped 110 points last week, closing at 1.2290. This week’s key events are the Annual Budget and Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.  

In the US, Donald Trump’s speech was short on specifics, disappointing the markets. Still, hawkish comments from Dudley and then from Brainard have sharply raised expectations of a March hike. In the UK, Manufacturing PMI dropped for a second straight month, while Manufacturing PMI missed expectations.

Updates

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • BoE Deputy Governor Charlotte Hogg Speech: Tuesday, 11:30. The newest member of the MPC will deliver remarks at an event in Lincoln. The markets will be all ears, looking for clues regarding any change to the BoE’s neutral monetary stance.
  • BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Tuesday, 00:01. This indicator measures retail sales in BRC shops. The index was unexpectedly soft with a reading of -0.6%, its first decline in 5 months.
  • Halifax HPI: Wednesday, 8:30. This inflation index provides a snapshot of the strength of the housing sector. In January, the index declined 0.9%, well off the forecast of +0.2%. The markets are expecting a rebound in the February report, with an estimate of 0.4%.
  • Annual Budget Release: Wednesday, 12:30.The annual budget provides details of the government’s projected spending, borrowing and revenue levels. Traders should treat it as a market-mover.
  • RICS House Price Balance: Thursday, 00:01. This housing indicator was almost unchanged at 25% in January, within expectations. The estimate for February is 23%.
  • Manufacturing Production: Friday, 9:30. This key indicator jumped to 2.1% in December, crushing the estimate of 0.3%. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.6% in the January report.
  • Goods Trade Balance: Friday, 9:30.The UK trade deficit narrowed to GBP 10.9 billion in December, smaller than the estimate of GBP 11.5 billion. In January, the deficit is expected to rise slightly to GBP 11.1 billion.
  • NIESR GDP Estimate: Friday, 15:00. This monthly indicator helps analysts track GDP releases, which are released every quarter. The indicator jumped to 0.7% in January, its highest level since July 2015.
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