The UK Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. It provides a snapshot of the UK employment situation and could affect the direction of GDP/USD.  

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD

Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

UK Claimant Count Change is closely monitored, as the indicator is one of the most important economic indicators. A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.

The indicator sparkled in January, as jobless rolls dropped by 42.4 thousand. This crushed the estimate of a gain of 1.1 thousand. Another small gain is expected in February, with an estimate of 3.1 thousand.

Sentiment and Levels

The markets have priced in a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, but the move should still reinvigorate the markets and push up the US dollar. With the Bank of England maintaining a neutral policy regarding rate movement, monetary divergence continues to favor the greenback. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2511, 1.2385, 1.2218, 1.2080. 1.1943 and 1.1844

Five Scenarios

  • Within expectations: -1.0K to +7.0K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
  • Above expectations: 7.1K to 11.0K: A weak reading could push the pair below one support level.
  • Well above expectations: Above 11.0K: In this scenario, the pair could break below two support lines.
  • Below expectations: -5.0K to -1.1K: A lower reading than expected could push GBP/USD upwards, with one resistance line at risk.
  • Well below expectations: Below 5.0K: A significant drop in jobless claims could result in GBP/USD pushing above two resistance lines.
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