GDX Decline Is Not Done

The chart above, is a two hour chart of the SPY. The pattern that could be forming is a Head and Shoulders bottom. The first area of resistance is the prior high near the 272 level.

This week is Option Expiration week which usually has a bullish bias. Also, next Monday is a holiday (President day) and volume can lighten up going into the holiday weekend. If the market is near 272, late this week, and the volume is lighter, likely the 272 range will be resistance and the market could fall back in the week after.

Long SPX on 2/8/18 at 2581.00. 

The chart above looks at the bigger picture and can lead us to what may happen in the future. Intermediate-term declines can occur when the NYSE McClellan Summation index (second window down from the top) turns down before reaching +500 and the NYSE Stocks above 150 day average (second window up from bottom) turn down before reaching 70%.

This chart goes back to late 2012 and shows the times when The NYSE McClellan Summation index failed to reach above +500 and the stocks above 150 day average failed to reach above 70%. The market don’t just makes a high and turns down, it makes tests of previous highs at least once if not several times. Therefore the high of January 26 will be at least tested once if not more. The test of the January 26 high will be the time to watch where the McClellan Summation and stocks above 150 day average stand. 

It is said that GDX/GLD ratio leads the way for GDX. If that holds true, than GDX may best testing its December 2016 low near 18.50 as GDX/GLD ratio already tested its December 2016 low.  Also, near short-term reversals bottoms, GDX/GLD ratio will produce a positive divergence where GDX/GLD ratio will make a higher low as GDX makes a lower low. That is not happening here, GDX has made a higher low close to the GDX/GLD ratio which also made a lower low close suggesting GDX decline is not done.