Global Stocks Mixed, Futures Rise As Oil Stumbles After OPEC Fails To Agree On Supply Cuts

Asian shares traded mixed, European shares slid while US equity futures posted a modest rebound after Friday’s surprising political news that the FBI reopened its probe into Hillary Clinton, after OPEC failed to agree supply cuts at a meeting in Vienna.

Energy shares on the MSCI All Country World Index and crude both slipped to one-month lows after OPEC ended two days of talks on Saturday without agreeing any individual quotas. The ruble led declines among the currencies of oil-exporting nations, while South Africa’s rand strengthened versus all of its major peers after the South African state prosecutor dropped fraud charges against finance minister Pravin Gordhan. Aluminum and zinc rallied to multi-year highs in Shanghai on optimism Chinese demand will hold up. Gold maintained the bulk of Friday’s gains, and traded at 4 week highs after a survey pointed to cooling support for Clinton before next week’s U.S. presidential election.

“Talks over the weekend make it seem less likely there will be an agreement on production cuts,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “The market has probably made a fair bit of the adjustment, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see oil fall further into the $47 range.” In a note Spooner also said that “there seems little doubt that a Trump victory would trigger selling in stock markets from current levels. This has traders nervous as they start the week assimilating fresh news on Hillary Clinton’s email problems.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 percent, after retreating 0.3 percent from a seven-month high in the last session. It’s climbed more than 2 percent this month, set for the biggest gain since May.While the Fed is seen leaving rates unchanged in its November 2 meeting, futures prices indicate a 69% chance of an interest-rate hike at its December meeting, up from 59% at the end of September.

Most Asian stocks struggled higher on Monday but investors were rattled by news that the FBI is planning to review more emails related to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s private server, just a week before the election. European markets also looked set for a shaky start, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.4% in early trading.

As Bloomberg notes, global equities lost ground in October as mixed corporate earnings meld with investor anxiety ahead of the Nov. 8 vote in the U.S. and expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before the year is out. The S&P 500 Index slid 20 points in about 40 minutes on Friday amid news the Federal Bureau of Investigation was again looking into Clinton’s use of private e-mail while secretary of state, an issue that has dogged her campaign. The OPEC talks yielded little more than a promise that the world’s top oil producers would keep discussing ways to stabilize the market.

“Until the election, the general theme will be uncertainty, which will have implications not just on the stock market, but on the dollar and Treasuries,” said Chad Morganlander, a money manager in Florham Park, New Jersey at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $180 billion. “The probability that was factored into the market and the global financial system was a Hillary Clinton victory – investors now need to square their books going into the election based on whatever new odds come out.”

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a six-week low on Monday before recovering 0.3 percent. It is set to end the month down 1.6 percent. Japan’s Nikkei, which touched a six-month high on Friday, closed 0.1 percent lower on Monday, but is up 5.9 percent in October.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.2 percent as of 8:12 a.m. London time, with a gauge of energy stocks sliding the most among 19 industry groups. A measure of energy shares on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5 percent, also the worst performance.

AIA Group Ltd. shares slumped as much as 7.2 percent after China Union Pay Co. halted credit and debt card payments for most insurance policies in Hong Kong, making it harder to conduct transactions with Chinese visitors that accounted for about half of the company’s sales in the city. Nippon Yusen KK and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. — Japan’s two largest shipping companies — surged more than 5 percent in Tokyo after they agreed to merge their container operations with those of third-ranked Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., which added less than 1 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.1 percent, after earlier retreating as much as 0.4 percent. An ABC/Washington Post tracking survey released Sunday gave Clinton 46 percent support from likely voters, to Trump’s 45 percent. Clinton was ahead by 12 points a week earlier.

Cited by Bloomberg, Matthew Sherwood, head of investment strategy in Sydney at Perpetual, said that “the race remains very tight and markets are far too complacent about the end result. If the polls tighten more, or the FBI investigation dominates the headlines, there could be a recalibration in market prices this week.”

American data on Monday are forecast to show personal spending and income both increased in September, based on Bloomberg surveys of economists.

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