Global Trade Bellwether FedEx Misses, Cuts Outlook, Blames Weak Industry Demand, Higher Wages

Every quarter we pay particular interest to the results reported by Fedex not only due to its position as the leading company in worldwide logistics but due to its status as a bellwether in global trade. And not surprisingly, following a bevy of reports here and elsewhere confirming the plunge in global trade, Fedex did not disappoint, or rather it did when it reported non-GAAP EPS of $2.42 (which included one extra day att the company’s operating segments) missing already reduced consensus expectations of $2.45, but it also cut its full year 2016 EPS guidance from $10.60-$11.10 to $10.40-$10.90 (below the consensus $10.83) proving yet again that hopes for EPS growth are just as misplaced as those for multiple expansion at a time when the Fed is preparing to hike rates and as China unleashes Quantitative Tightening.

Specifically, the company announced that a boost in operating income at FedEx Express “were partially offset by higher incentive compensation accruals, higher self-insurance reserves and operating costs at FedEx Ground, and lower-than-anticipated volume at FedEx Freight. Fuel had a slightly negative net impact to operating income.”

At Express, FedEx managed to grow operating income by 45% even as revenues dropped 4% Y/Y to $6.59 billion “as lower fuel surcharges and unfavorable currency exchange rates more than offset improved base rates. U.S. domestic package volume grew by 1%, driven by growth in deferred box and overnight envelope. U.S. domestic revenue per package decreased 3% due to lower fuel surcharges, partially offset by strong base rates.”

If Express saw a rebound in profits despite a rise in revenues, the company’s Ground segment did the opposite with operating income declining 1% to $537 million “as lower fuel surcharges and unfavorable currency exchange rates more than offset improved base rates. U.S. domestic package volume grew by 1%, driven by growth in deferred box and overnight envelope. U.S. domestic revenue per package decreased 3% due to lower fuel surcharges, partially offset by strong base rates.”