Are they? As usual, the FOMC minutes provoked diverse interpretations, both dovish and hawkish. Let’s analyze them, separating the wheat from the chaff. What do the recent minutes really mean for the gold market?
Hawks Attack Bullion
We have long warned investors about the hawkish treat. For example, as early as in the October edition of the Market Overview, we wrote that the Fed under Powell could be more hawkish than under Yellen. In December, after Powell’s nomination, we elaborated on our stance, pointing out two important changes: (1) the distinct macroeconomic environment – think about faster economic growth and more expansionary fiscal policy – in which Powell would have to act; (2) the composition of the FOMC in 2018 will move slightly from the dovish to the hawkish side. As a result, we stated that “a more hawkish policy would be a headwind for gold prices.”
Yesterday’s developments seem to confirm our opinion. The U.S. central bank published the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. They showed that “members agreed that the strengthening in the near-term economic outlook increased the likelihood that a gradual upward trajectory of the federal funds rate would be appropriate.” The main reasons for a more optimistic outlook were Trump’s tax cuts and rising inflation. See for yourself:
The projection for inflation over the medium term was revised up slightly, primarily reflecting tighter resource utilization in the January forecast. Total PCE price inflation in 2018 was projected to be somewhat faster than in 2017 despite a slower projected pace of increases in consumer energy prices; core PCE prices were forecast to rise notably faster in 2018, importantly reflecting both the expected waning of transitory factors that held down 12-month measures of inflation in 2017 as well as the projected further tightening in resource utilization. The staff projected that core inflation would reach 2 percent in 2019 and that total inflation would be at the Committee’s 2 percent objective in 2020.
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