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  • Gold declines but holds to weekly gains as mixed US economic data keeps rate cut expectations alive.
  • Market braces for the Federal Reserve’s decision on December 18, with a 93% likelihood of a 25 bps cut anticipated.
  • Upcoming US economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s commentary will be critical for future market direction.

    • Gold price fell for the second consecutive day as high US Treasury bond yields weighed on the yellow metal. Traders await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut next week. The XAU/USD trades at $2,657, down 0.80%.Despite posting losses, Bullion is up almost 1% in the week following a tranche of US economic data releases. US inflation data on the consumer and producer sides was mixed, but the latest Initial Jobless Claims report gave the green light to investors for pricing in the Fed’s December rate cut.Traders’ focus shifted to the Fed’s monetary policy meeting on December 17-18, with traders predicting a 93% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut via data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).Following the decision, investors will eye Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, looking for clues regarding the policy path for 2025.Second-tier data featured on Friday showed that US Import Prices rose marginally, while Export Prices dipped in November.The non-yielding metal extended its losses after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that he has seen encouraging signs that a Gaza ceasefire is possible.Next week, the US economic docket will feature the release of S&P Global Flash PMIs, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision, and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

    Daily digest market movers: Gold price treads water amid US Treasury yields jump
     

  • Gold prices plunged as US real yields rose almost five basis points to 2.066%, up from 1.996%.
  • The US 10-year Treasury bond yield rises four-and-a-half basis points to 4.375%, weighing on the golden metal.
  • The US Dollar Index remains firm at 107.05, virtually unchanged.
  • Import Prices for November ticked up 0.1% MoM, unchanged compared to October but exceeded forecasts of a -0.2% deceleration.
  • Export Prices for the same period dropped from 1% to 0% MoM, above estimates of -0.2%.
  • Sources cited by Reuters noted, “We have reached the time of year when convictions are low, and positions are being held on a short leash, meaning any price reversal – in both directions – will quickly be met with position-squaring.”
  • Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that China’s central bank “may even increase Gold demand during periods of local currency weakness to boost confidence in their currency.”

    • Technical outlook: Gold price retreats, sellers eye 100-day SMA
     Gold price continued its correction after hitting a two-month peak of $2,726 before sliding toward the $2,650 region. It seems the golden metal found its fair value price within the $2,600-$2,700 range near the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $2,670 and $2,597, respectively.A weekly close below the 50-day SMA could motivate sellers to drive Gold’s price lower. Key support levels lie at $2,600, the 100-day SMA and near November 14 low of $2,536. On the bullish side, if buyers reclaim $2,700, the next resistance would be the December 12 peak at $2,726, followed by the record high at $2,790.More By This Author:EUR/JPY Dips Further Below 159.50 Post ECB’s Rate Cut GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Recovers Past 194.00, Traders Eye 200-Day SMASilver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Nears $32 Hurdle Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation

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