Gold Prices May Edge Up On Soft US Inflation Data

Talking Points:

Commodities digest as Good Friday holiday drains liquidity

Gold prices may edge higher if US CPI falls short of forecasts

Crude oil prices stuck as futures markets shutter for the week

Commodities marked time as trading activity fizzled ahead of closures for the Good Friday holiday across most major financial markets. Crude oil prices will see their next moves next week when futures exchanges reopen. Gold prices may see a bit of activity however as US CPI data crosses the wires.

The core on-year inflation rate is expected to tick up to 2.3 percent, a print broadly in line with the trend average (2.2 percent). US economic news-flow has deteriorated relative to forecasts over the past month, opening the door for a downside surprise that may weigh on Fed rate hike bets and boost the yellow metal.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices paused to consolidate after hitting the highest level in five months. From here, a daily close above the 1302.90-08.00 area (76.4% Fibonacci expansion, former support) sees the next upside barrier at 1336.19, the 100% level. Alternatively, a reversal back under the 61.8% Fib at 1282.31 paves the way for a retest of the 1263.87-65.66 region (50% expansion, February 27 high).

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices are digesting losses after snapping a four-day winning streak. Near-term support is at 52.04, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close below that exposing the 23.6% level at 50.14. Alternatively, a sustained push above the 50% Fibat 53.57 opens the door for a test of the 55.10-21 area (January 3 high, 61.8% expansion).