We do in depth analysis on a weekly basis (and every day in-week) because there is no substitute for working to be right with the market’s evolving situation as opposed to making bias or ego stoked calls in hopes of being right.
The current situation has seen some calling ‘bullish’ on the stock market despite a still intact bear trend (noted repeatedly in NFTRH), people going bullish on commodities despite their “bounce only” (also noted repeatedly) status in the absence of real, market-based inflation signals (which I do think are coming soon) and global markets bouncing within bear trends of varying degrees.
But the good feelings of the last 1.5 months have been indicated as a counter-trend bounce to reset the unsustainable bearishness of January and February’s downside, although the bounce has come very close to the point where it could negate the bear trend. As yet, it has not.
In the most recent post in our Macrocosm series on February 12 we noted Gold’s Macrocosm: The Planets Align and after a subsequent bull run in stocks and corrective consolidation in gold and gold stocks, everything is still lined up for this macro view.
I will state up front that I have been no bull hero on the gold sector since things became very over bought about a month ago. That over bought state plus the projection of a stock market relief bounce begged caution. Personally, I traded the miners during this jagged up and down phase, only holding a couple firmly (which happen to have been in bull markets since 2013).
Another point of moderation is that although I think a bull market has started, it is not technically proven and will not be proven for the entire sector until higher levels are exceeded on the indexes. There are very clear levels below which anyone definitively calling this a bull market is promoting an already formed conclusion based on fundamentals or hope, not technical reality.
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