To date, 2016 is a year where the reversion to the mean trade is strong. This means Wall Street favorites have been losers and unloved assets like gold have been winners.
In fact, gold is having its best start to a year since 1980. The precious metal is up 15% so far this year.
That movement has enticed investors who usually wouldn’t be interested in gold to invest in it.
Recently, billionaire Mark Cuban told CNBC that the markets have left him “confused” this year. That led him to buy call options on gold, to benefit from investors’ flight into the safe haven.
So why exactly has gold soared in early 2016?
Central Banks Go Negative
One reason is simply because investors usually turn to gold in times of financial market turbulence.
Another factor is the slight weakening of the U.S. dollar.
But the biggest reason by far is the actions of central banks.
Perceptions of interest rate increases by our Federal Reserve have changed from four increases in 2016 to none. Many observers, including myself, think the Fed will reverse course and once again lower rates.
Perhaps even more important than what the Fed may or may not do is what the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and other European central banks have already done.
All have pushed interest rates into negative territory.
Many think this means central banks are running out of ideas and “ammunition.” John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund told the Financial Times, “What’s going to sustain it [gold] is a loss of confidence in central banking, which is just starting.”
I cannot emphasize enough to readers that negative interest rates are the biggest development in the financial markets in many decades. And that development is largely responsible for the “confusion” among market participants that Mark Cuban was talking about.
And Gold Glitters
There’s no confusion, however, among those bullish on gold. They point to the currency debasement caused by negative rates.
Leave A Comment