Ok, well if what you needed to start your week on the “right” foot was Goldman telling you that “a correction of some kind seems a high probability in the coming months”, well then rejoice, because that’s exactly what the bank says in a brand new note.
Basically, the latest from the bank’s global equity strategy team amounts to an effort to rollup a bunch of recent notes into one sweeping assessment of the prevailing dynamics and you know what? That’s actually pretty damn useful, because it’s hard to keep up with all of this shit on a daily basis, so props to them for that.
Anyway, one theme that pervades the analysis is the idea that investors should be wary of rising bond yields. This is of course a hot topic right now, what with Treasurys posting some of their worst risk-adjusted returns on recored YTD while the S&P continues its inexorable rally.
“The ‘melt-up’ in equities has already happened despite sharp bond losses,” the bank writes, before showing you the rather stark contrast that seems to suggest the “everything bubble” may be at risk:
Of course there are plenty of reasons why equity investors are feeling so goddamn optimistic and Goldman makes sure to list all of those reasons. Hint: it’s the usual suspects, so synchronous global growth, still low bond yields (even if they’re now rising), loose financial conditions, and low macro vol. That said, Goldman states the obvious which is that it’s better to buy at the bottom than the top:
Despite the strong macro outlook, it is worth remembering that it is typically better to buy a market when the news is poor and valuations are low than when all news is good and valuations are high. The risks associated with strong conditions are reflected in our bull/bear market indicator, which is currently high relative to history (Exhibit 8).
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