Has The Dollar Correction Come To An End?

This past weekend saw the dollar rise from a near three-month low amid signs that U.S. consumer spending remains strong.

The greenback advanced versus most of the other major currencies, snapping four days of losses versus the yen, as a Commerce Department report showed retail sales had increased more than forecast in January. The currency rose from its weakest since October 2014.

At her testimony in front of Congress last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was firm in her decision to raise rates for the first time in a decade. Rather she reiterated that the central bank is monitoring incoming data and will raise rates at a gradual pace when and if necessary. Her admission helped the dollar trim the third loss in so many weeks. Global slowdown and concerns over the creditworthiness of some European banks had reduced the outlook for tighter U.S. monetary policy.

THIS PAST WEEKEND SAW THE DOLLAR RISE FROM A NEAR THREE-MONTH LOW AMID SIGNS THAT U.S. CONSUMER SPENDING REMAINS STRONG

FMOC Minutes This Week

The minutes from the FMOC meeting will be released this week but some analysts are dismissing the importance of economic data as an important factor in forecasting the future of the dollar. Many are looking for some sort of event or official action that will stop the rout that has already reached historic proportions since the start of the year. None of the frequently mentioned events, such as an agreement to cut oil output, or for a coordinated policy response by the major countries, are probable.

Some analysts are reading the dollar’s collapse against the euro and the yen as reaching its end. They point out that the U.S. Dollar Index is heavily weighted toward Europe and is not representative of U.S. trade flows. Two of America’s four largest trading partners, Mexico and China, are not even included in the Index. According to their data, European and U.S. markets have shown signs of stabilizing at the end of last week.

Many investors disagree with this assessment. The measure of the greenback’s momentum against the yen, known as the 14-day relative strength indicator, has dropped below 30, the level that some traders view as a signal the currency has reached extreme levels and may reverse. A similar gauge for the currency versus the euro also remains near a level that suggests weakness is extreme.