Has The Market’s Timer Popped?

The larger the bird, the longer it takes to cook.

Luckily, the handy red timer thingy pops when the bird of any size has roasted to perfection. Why then, do some people still overcook or undercook a turkey? Perhaps, it’s because they ignore the pop-up technology.

The market’s indices made new all-time highs. Not surprising given the bullish sentiment, especially in Technology or Sister Semiconductors (SMH.)

The theory I go back and forth on – the Fifth Wave of Disbelief – assumes the last of the bears finally throw in the towel. And then, the blow off rally begins.

For now, we can compare the bears to those who ignore the market’s pop-up timer and therefore undercook the turkey (or underbuy equities). Weary after a rough night eating undercooked turkey, the bears swear that turkey is bad for you (swear that the market is topping).

And then, they are invited to a professional cook’s house, eat a perfectly roasted bird, and decide to eat turkey every day thereafter. The Bears declare, “Turkey (the market) is amazing! Gotta get me more.”

But, what about those who overcook the turkey (or have too much exposure in the market?) Those are the bulls that see the market timer pop and think they should cook their positions even longer. They might figure that more marinade adds to the flavor without compromising taste.

This is the dilemma of both the bulls and the bears as we head into Thanksgiving.

Both bulls and bears are home for the holidays. What will turkey talk at the dinner table look like? A market on new highs? Bears still predicting a top? Bulls loaded up mainly in the tech sector? A volatile geo-political climate? A seasonally strong period for stocks? A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve? A quarter of unusually strong corporate earnings? A tax reform uncertain? A brick and mortar sector trying to rally yet still on the precipice of collapse?

Whether one eats too much under or overcooked turkey, one side effect prevails – tryptophan overdose or “feast-induced drowsiness.” However, studies show that turkey has no more tryptophan in it than any other poultry. Perception. Ah!!