Have US Treasury Yields Bottomed? Are You Sure?

The consensus view is the Fed will hike 3-4 times in 2018 and that treasury yields long ago bottomed. Agree? I don’t.

US Treasury Yields 1998-Present

The above chart suggests it is far too premature to believe that long-term yields have bottomed.

US Treasury Yields 5-year Duration and Under 1998-Present

Other than zero-bound 3-month treasuries, it is difficult to present a clear technical case that even short-term rates have bottomed.

And given that a huge percentage of the world’s bonds trade at negative interest rates, one cannot make a legitimate case that any bond yields have bottomed.