How The French Elections May Affect The Financial Markets

On 18 March, the Constitutional Council of France announced that 11 candidates had fulfilled the conditions to participate in the first round of presidential elections, due to be held on 23 April.

The Constitutional Council noted that the first round candidates will be François Fillon (The Republicans); Benoît Hamon (Socialist Party); Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!); Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (France Arise); Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Left Party); Nathalie; Arthaud (Workers’ Struggle); Marine Le Pen (National Front); François Asselineau (Popular Republican Union); Philippe Poutou (New Anticapitalist Party); Jean Lassalle (Résistons!) and Jacques Cheminade (Solidarity and Progress).

Among all of these candidates the focus is on Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and François Fillon.

French presidential elections are the focus of the global financial markets. According to public opinion polls, Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Front, has a good chance of entering the second round, along with centre candidate – Emmanuel Macron. But what if Le Pen emerges as the victor? What will this mean for the French economy and the fate of the Euro?

Preliminary polling data, collected on March 29, showed Fillon/Le Pen at 60/40 respectively, as opposed to 58/42 prior to that date. In the first round of polling, Le Pen/Macron/Fillon were 25/25/20, as opposed to 26/24/20 earlier. This shows some lost ground for Le Pen.

Source: Forexlive.com

My personal opinion is that that no one will win the election in the first round. There is a chance that Marine Le Pen might win the first round, but in French presidential elections, if no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, the two candidates with the highest share of the vote proceed to a second round of voting.

Current data shows that Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron are leading the race. However, research has also predicted that Macron would probably beat Le Pen if a second round were to take place on 7 May – polls for which are currently around 61 per cent (Macron) to 39 per cent (Le Pen).

What may be a surprise is the popularity of the far left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who’s had a huge surge in popularity, going from around 10% in late-February to 18% at last count on Bloomberg’s Composite poll. This puts Mélenchon pretty much on par with Republican François Fillon’s 18.5%. This late surge from Mélenchon, as well as the resilience of the defamed right-winger Fillon, has definitely broadened out the competition.