How The Model 3 Changed The Game For Tesla

By Cole Wilcox and Ross Hendricks

$8 billion of sales in 24 hours – that’s not a bad day for Elon Musk. That’s the expected value of the more than 200,000 in pre-sale orders Tesla (TSLA) generated after unveiling its new Model 3 mass market electric car last week.

Many were expecting an Apple-style blockbuster event, judging from the flurry of social media images from Tesla die-hards who camped out overnight to put down their $1,000 on the $35,000 base model sedan. That was before many had even seen the new auto.

With a minimum range of 215 miles and a zero to 60 acceleration in less than six seconds, that excitement isn’t expected to slow anytime soon. In fact, by the end of the first weekend, pre-orders topped 275,000. For reference, this is on par with the total number of Honda Civics sold in all of 2015.

A watershed moment

Despite missing projections on its Q1 car shipments (with its 14,820 vehicles dipping below its 16,000 guidance), this event marks a watershed moment for Tesla.

From the beginning, Tesla’s ambition was to become a leader in mass market, sustainable transportation. The earlier, high-end models were simply a means to that end. Now, that ambition has been achieved with the record-setting Model 3.

What does this mean for Tesla’s business model? This unexpected level of demand dramatically shifts forward the production curve for the Model 3. Tesla’s previous projections set a goal of 200,000 cars sold by sometime in the middle of 2019.

The Model 3 upended that timeline when it helped Tesla sell out the next three years of expected production in just 24 hours.

A new timetable

I believe Tesla now has every incentive to ramp up production to full scale as quickly as possible. So does Musk, as he tweeted several times after the reveal that the production timeline has to be examined.

To see what it will take for Tesla to achieve this, let’s examine the facts.