We have had a crazy winter here in the northeast. Some days it’s hot some days it is bitter cold. I cannot remember a February where we had more than 10 days of 65-degree weather. It was nice while it lasted. Now we are back to a more normal 19-degree temperature. I guess it is only fitting that the weather is as volatile as our politics and economic outlook.
I won’t delve into politics here since I’m sure everyone has had enough of it on Facebook, TV, and Twitter. However, there are some things that need to be discussed. and are interesting to me.
First, We have officially come out our the earnings growth recession we have been in. We had 5 quarters in a row of negative earnings growth year-over-year. I would call this a recession. Apparently, the NBER and the markets disagree. There is one absolute in the markets, price is always right.
Now, we have had 2 quarters in a row of year-over-year positive earnings growth. It looks like things are picking up economically. Earnings are growing at a 4.6% rate, the highest in 3 years. This is a positive sign economically for the stock market, but not the whole stock market. Certain areas are not doing as well as others.
President Trump has made some grandiose campaign promises. Initially, I wanted to hold off to see if they were just campaign promises that he would not fulfill (like most other presidents), or if he would actually do what he said. I think it is clear he intends to do what he said he would do. Whether he can get it through congress is another story. Let’s just say I’m cautiously optimistic.
Whether you like trump or not, I think this is the first time I have seen plans in place to boost the economy in a positive way and at the same time fix some of the nation’s ills. The ills I’m talking about are the US infrastructure. President Obama had a chance to fix our nation’s infrastructure in his presidency when he tripled the US debt outstanding, but if you look at our nation’s infrastructure problems, you will see that he failed at this great opportunity.
Our national debt has increased exponentially in the past 8 years, yet in 2013, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave our nation’s infrastructure a D+. They issue a report card every 4 years so we should expect to receive the next one this year. Here is the report card if you are interested. Our national debt has increased exponentially in the past 8 years, yet in 2013, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave our nation’s infrastructure a D+. They issue a report card every 4 years so we should expect to receive the next one this year?
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