Inside The Window Of Opportunity Or Risk

Two out of the four market indices had inside trading days today. An inside day is when the current day’s trading range is literally inside the prior day’s trading range.

Imagine inside days like when investors look inside a window and can only see a portion of the house.

From that viewpoint, they pause and try to decide if they should enter the house or turn and run for the hills.

In the S&P 500, Friday’s trading range made a high price of 238.02 and a low price of 236.59. Today’s high and low was 237.86 and 237.24.

Not only did the range stay well within Friday’s range, the range itself was less than ½ of what SPY trades ordinarily. Hesitancy and confusion.

What might we see if we investors peek into the Modern Family’s window?

Will tomorrow entice us to take a calculated risk and enter the house?

Or, will Amityville Horror-like ghosts spook us from taking any unnecessary risk?

The Russell 2000 (IWM) did not have an inside trading day.

After trying to rally back above the 50 Daily Moving Average and back into an unconfirmed bullish phase, IWM closed green but not by enough.

Retail continued to weaken. No inside day for Granny. Apparently XRT is convinced that the house has poltergeists living in it. I suspect only an exorcism will get XRT to rally. However, anything is possible.

Transportation’s house looks equally ominous. No inside day in IYT, therefore no ability to peek inside. Without even a minimal view into what comes next, IYT went back into an unconfirmed warning phase. Furthermore, the chance of a bloody sacrifice increased.

Regional Banks (KRE) followed the lead of the SPY and posted an inside day. Makes sense that our Prodigal Son would offer us only a limited window view ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting.

KRE leaves us with one finger on the doorbell and one foot ready to run. Its 50 DMA is uncomfortably close to current levels.

Biotechnology (IBB) or the Family’s Big Brother, believes that no matter what he can concoct a potion to evaporate the ghosts of the market.