Inventories: Another Hit To GDP Estimates For First Quarter

Wholesale inventories declined 0.1% for March while retail inventories rose 0.4% according to Advance Indicators from the Census Department.

The report also shows wholesale inventories rose only 0.2% in February vs the initial report of plus 0.4%.

Advance International Trade in Goods

The international trade deficit was $64.8 billion in March, up $0.9 billion from $63.9 billion in February. Exports of goods for March were $125.5 billion, $2.2 billion less than February exports. Imports of goods for March were $190.3 billion, $1.4 billion less than February imports.

Advance Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $592.8 billion, down 0.1 percent from February 2017, and were up 2.7 percent from March 2016. The January 2017 to February 2017 percentage change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.2 percent.

Advance Retail Inventories

Retail inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $616.6 billion, up 0.4 percent from February 2017, and were up 3.5 percent from March 2016. The January 2017 to February 2017 percentage change was unrevised at up 0.4 percent.

GDP Estimate

These numbers impact tomorrow’s advance GDP estimate which I now have back at 0.4%. My estimate also takes in today’s anemic durable goods report (see Aircraft Orders: The Only Durable Goods Item Humming).