Is The Al-Naimi Exit A Saudi Oil Policy Shake-Up? Not Likely

This weekend’s announcement that veteran Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi would be stepping down from the position he has held since 1995 drew a flurry of media speculation. Digital media outlets claimed that al-Naimi was ousted by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in order to consolidate power or that he was fired to clear out opposition to Saudi Arabia’s move towards its new National Transformation Plan.  These oil shake-up theories may translate into digital click-bait, but they do not reflect the reality of Saudi Arabia. Investors should not read volatility, policy reversals, or quick changes into this move. Here are four reasons why.

1) Retirement not termination:

Ali al-Naimi is in his 80s, and although he is in particularly good health for his age (a video of him after his daily 10K walk recently made the rounds on Twitter), his fatigue with demands of the job has been evident this year. Last January, after the death of King Abdullah, reports surfaced that he wished to retire, but King Salman reportedly convinced him to stay during the transition period. Perhaps King Salman’s abrupt announcement of the ministerial change—issued by royal decree—was less diplomatic then the West might expect, but the Saudis are nothing if not blunt.

2) No single bureaucrat runs Aramco:

Historically, Saudi Arabian policy depends on wide agreement between the King, his advisors, and major bureaucrats. Ali al-Naimi had been oil minister for twenty-one years and therefore enjoyed significant influence. However, oil policy was never his alone. He worked with CEOs of Aramco, directors of Aramco, various bureaucrats, royal advisors, members of the royal family and—not least—the three different kings who ruled the monarchy during al-Naimi’s long tenure as oil minister. No oil policy, not even the current policy of high production and low prices, has been dependent on al-Naimi.