It’s Never A Perfect Time To Invest In Stocks

Let me know if any of these narratives sound familiar to you:

2013 Analyst: “We are deeply concerned about the sharply rising 10-Year Treasury Yield as a headwind for stocks. The end of quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary policies may forestall further gains in equities.” Total return of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): +32.31%

2014 Analyst: “A sharp drop in virtually all commodity prices may be signaling a contraction in the global economy and warrant reducing exposure to risk assets. Furthermore, the strongest performing asset class is the 30-year Treasury bond, which is a virtual assurance of the coming apocalypse.” SPY total return: +13.46%

2015 Analyst: “We are worried that market breadth is deteriorating so rapidly. The “FANG” stocks are the only bright spots in an otherwise bleak investing landscape. In fact, the average publicly traded company is now firmly in bear market territory.” SPY total return: +1.23%

2016 Analyst: “We are troubled that utilities and consumer staples stocks are the market leaders and momentum is waning in growth sectors. This bulking up in defensive assets may lead to….” SPY total return: TBD

Should be interesting to see how that last one ends.

Those aren’t real headlines, but made-up approximations based on very real themes that assaulted investors over the last four years. I could go further back in time to sensationalize the concerns of market participants in the cross hairs of any given moment, but I think the point has been made.

The stock market never looks perfect. There is always something to worry about. That is why they call it climbing the “wall of worry”.

If you are waiting on a specific point of certainty in order to invest, you are going to be the last guy or girl holding the bag before the wheels really come off. There are always going to be wars, elections, corruption, debt cycles, stock upheaval, commodity insecurity, and a whole lot of people who are bigger, faster, and smarter than you are in the market.  In addition, there are shifting cross currents that offer little in the way of predictable patterns.