In November of 2001 I was on an investment panel with three other people, including David Tice of Prudent Bear fame. He was riding high because, in addition to the recession of 2001, the markets had sold off after 9/11. His fund was doing well and he saw nothing but bad news for the economy and for him in the years ahead.
Relying on demographics, I told him and the audience that America’s economy would rebound as consumers spent more, but would then suffer a terrible blow between 2008 and 2010.
David countered that consumers were tapped out, so they had no resources for future spending. How could I expect them to blow more cash?
It was simple. Because they wanted to.
Consumer spending didn’t unfold exactly as we expected during the 2000s, but there’s no doubt that consumers ramped up their spending to dizzying heights in the housing boom, using zero-down loans and home equity lines of credit. The crash of 2008-2010 happened as expected, and consumers pulled in their spending horns.
But just as demographics pointed to an overall drop in spending, they also revealed that certain areas would rebound quicker than others.
A case in point is RVs. Nine million American households now have one.
There’s only one reason for this. Because they want to.
Statistical Surveys, Inc. reports that for the first 10 months of 2015, RV sales were up 11% over 2014 to 335,528 units. That tops the previous record in 2007, and is 78% higher than 2009, when the market crashed because buyers couldn’t get financing. Sales soared in 2010, up 46.2%, were up modestly in 2011 at 4.1%, and then have increased by double digits every year.
I don’t currently own an RV, but as I get a little older they are catching my attention on the road. There’s something about almost camping that’s appealing, as well as the freedom to change locations as I choose, and go home when it suits me.
This desire for flexibility and control says more about my age than my personality.
Leave A Comment