It’s Time To Pick Up Some Gold

I have not done a gold trade in yonks. That’s because it has been the asset class from hell for the past five years, dropping some 46% from its 2011 $1,927 high.

However, we are now in a brave new, and scarier world.

Given the extreme volatility of financial markets in recent months, all of a sudden keeping hedges on board looks like a good idea. I’m sure the next time stocks take a big dive, the barbarous relic will post a double digit gain.

So, this makes it an excellent hedge for my outstanding long S&P 500 (SPY) and short Treasury (TLT) “RISK ON” positions.

Also supporting the yellow metal is what I call the “Big Figure Syndrome”. And there is no bigger number than $1,000, the upper strike on this trade.

While rising interest rates are always bad for gold, the realization is sinking in that it is definitely NOT off to the raises now that the Federal Reserve has at last begun a tightening cycle.

Personally, I expect “one and done” to gain credence by midyear, once implications of six months of Fed inaction starts to sink in. As long as rates rise slowly, or not at all, we have a gold positive environment.

The Treasury bond market has already figured this out, with yields now lower than when the Fed carried out its 25 basis point snugging.

In addition, gold has recently found some new friends. Russia has come out of nowhere in recent months and emerged as one of the world’s largest buyers. This is because economic sanctions brought down upon them by the invasion of Crimea and the Ukraine is steering them away from dollar assets.

Keep in mind that this is only a trade worth about $200 to the upside. Then, I’ll probably sell it again.

I am avoiding the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) for now, as the next stock market swoon will take it down as well, no matter what the yellow metal does.

But get me a good price and a rising stock market, and I’ll be in there with another Trade Alert.