J.Jill Debuts On NYSE Amid Continued Negativity On Retail Names

As an unloved retail sector continues to grapple with the rise of e-commerce alongside declining mall and department store traffic, research firm Mizuho downgraded multiple names in the space Thursday on the industry’s still-cloudy outlook. The firm’s recommendation coincided with J.Jill’s (JILL) launch on the New York Stock Exchange, which was met with lukewarm response from traders despite being the only retail IPO in over a year.

MIZUHO NEGATIVE ON APPAREL, FOOTWEAR: Mizuho’s Betty Chen issued a bearish call on footwear and apparel retailers Thursday, downgrading DSW (DSW), Express (EXPR), Finish Line (FINL), and Tailored Brands (TLRD), all to Neutral from Buy, and cut Guess (GES) to Underperform from Neutral, citing “increasingly worrisome traffic and KPI metrics surfacing for the Spring season that may persist throughout FY17.” The analyst concedes that the stocks already appear to be bottoming, but she highlights that investors over-penalize retailers regardless of valuations, and argues that the “ongoing negative traffic trends and heightened competitive environment” will either prolong a turnaround in the case of Express, Tailored and Guess, or produce a “disappointing” outlook at Finish Line and DSW.

Diving into specific negatives against the companies named in her report, Chen says she expects “weak” Q4 numbers and FY17 guidance from DSW, adding that any potential strength in footwear during the quarter was “likely discount driven.” On Finish Line, the analyst cites the company’s “product issues within apparel/accessories” in addition to her wider concerns of soft traffic. Turning to Guess, Chen continues to “question” the company’s efforts to rejuvenate its Americas segment as well as its multi-year expansion plans for Asia and Europe, while for Tailored Brands, the analyst highlights the negative impact of its “disappointing collaboration” with Macy’s (M).