US Census says manufacturing new orders declined, Our analysis shows the rolling averages improved.

Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales

According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was aircraft which accounted for much of the decline. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which improved.

Remember the headline numbers are not inflation adjusted..

Backlog of orders continues in expansion year-over-year. And this data is not inflation adjusted which mean backlog is contracting.

US Census Headline:

  • The seasonally adjusted manufacturing new orders is down 1.4 % month-over-month.
  • Market expected (from Bloomberg / Econoday) month-over-month growth of -4.3 % to -0.4 % (consensus -1.2 %).
  • Manufacturing unfilled orders decreased 0.3 % month-over-month, and up 2.0 % year-over-year.

    • Econintersect Analysis:.

  • Unadjusted manufacturing new orders growth accelerated 1.0 % month-over-month, and up 8.4 % year-over-year.
  • Unadjusted manufacturing new orders (but inflation adjusted) up 4.6 % year-over-year.
  • Three month rolling new order rolling averages was up 1.0 % month-over-month, and is up 8.3 % year-over-year.
  • Unadjusted manufacturing unfilled orders growth unchanged month-over-month, and up 2.0 % year-over-year
  • As a comparison to the inflation adjusted new orders data, the manufacturing subindex of the Federal Reserves Industrial Production growth up 0.1 % month-over-month, and up 2.0 % year-over-year.

    • Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Value of New Orders – All (red line, left axis), All except Defense (green line, left axis), All with Unfilled Orders (orange line, left axis), and all except transport (blue line, right axis)

    The graph below shows sector growth year-over-year.

    Year-over-Year Change Manufacturing New Orders – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)

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