January Payrolls Preview: The "Bomb Cyclone" Rebound

With the January jobs report due at 830am ET on Friday morning, here is a quick recap of Wall Street expectations, via RanSquawk and Goldman:

PREVIEW: January Jobs Report

Non-farm Payrolls: Est. 180k (98k to 230k), Prev. 148k

Unemployment Rate: Est. 4.1% (4.1% to 4.2%), Prev. 4.1%

Average Earnings Y/Y: Est. 2.6% (2.4% to 2.7%), Prev. 2.5%

Average Earnings M/M: Est. 0.3% (0.1% to 0.4%), Prev. 0.3% • Average Work Week Hours: Est. 34.5hrs (34.4hrs to 34.5hrs), Prev. 34.5hrs

The US is expected to have created 180K job in December (range 98K-230K), a rebound from last month’s disappointing 148K and just higher than last year’s average of 171K (down from 186K in 2016). With labor market fundamentals seemingly solid, some banks such as Goldman believe January jobs will benefit from weather in the survey week which improved sequentially from that of December, despite the “bomb cyclone” in the first week of the month.

“Employment growth disappointed at the end of last year, but the 148k gain in nonfarm payrolls in December wasn’t far below the gradual downward trend over the last three years,” Capital Economics says. “That trend will probably continue in 2018, but with the labour force rising by only 70k per month on average over the last 12 months, it won’t prevent the unemployment rate from falling further.”

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, the lowest level since February 2001.

But nothing will get as much attention as the average hourly earnings print for renewed signs of wage inflation: it is expected to increase 0.3% (unch) month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year (up from 2.5% in Dec.), as unfavorable calendar effects are partially offset by a modest expected boost from minimum wage hikes.

For now, an allegedly tightening labor market hasn’t put any significant upward pressure on average hourly earnings, and analysts at HSBC are expecting a softer showing in January on the back of pay period calendar quirks. However, core inflation has begun to tick up, and analysts are confident that wages will soon follow. In its latest statement (31/Jan), the FOMC noted that “market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.”