Jeffrey Gundlach: “This Is The Most Scary Chart In The World”

Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach has – as always – a clear view about the financial markets. He backs his opinion with comprehensive charts. His message these days is quite simple but disturbing: the economy is not as strong as we think. A rate hike is a big mistake.

The next chart tells everything: nominal global GDP is negative for 2015: – 5%. This only happened two times before: 1982 and 2009. Coincidentally, the Fed raised rates in 1982, which was one of only two times it did so when nominal GDP in the U.S. was below 4.2%. Not long after the Federal Reserve was obliged to reverse the rate hike.

The implied probability of a rate increase in December, based on the market pricing, is 64%, according to Gundlach. Gundlach said he was struck by the divergence of policies in the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., real GDP is growing at 2%, and in the E.U. it is 1.5%.

The 50 basis points difference does not align with the aggressively expansive policy in Europe and the calls for Fed tightening in the U.S., he said, even though unemployment rates are much higher in Europe.

Scary chart n° 2: USD Index

Gundlach advises to keep track of the USD index. When the USD index closes above 100,3 it means the USD broke above the previous high. There is over $9 trillion in dollar-denominated debt outside the U.S., which will be problematic if the dollar continues to increase, according to Gundlach. So far, there isn’t a crisis condition. But if there is “another dollar leg up that would be bad for commodities, U.S. exports and earnings.

In this case Federal Reserve kills its own economic recovery. The current downward trend in margins is almost perfectly consistent with the onset of prior recessions, according to Gundlach. He said this was “the most bearish chart for the U.S. economy.

Spreads are also widening on corporate bonds in the investment-grade and junk sectors. “You have a double whammy affecting the corporate economy. How can that be good? Why would you want exposure to those sectors if the Fed is intent on raising interest rates against a very weak backdrop of mixed econ indicators? What’s coming out of the junk bond market is the loudest cry that one can find about why the Fed is reluctant to raise interest rates.”