This week, the Federal Reserve will likely have its last monetary policy meeting with both Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen in the building. This provides an opportunity to look forward to where the economy is going and what polices the Fed will pursue to guard the integrity of the financial system and achieve full employment and reasonable price stability — these days, defined as 2% inflation.
For the first time since 2004, the economy is on the verge of registering three consecutive quarters of 3% or better growth. The recovery appears to have broken loose of most of the vestiges of the financial crisis as it pertains to consumer and business behavior.
The stock rally represents no asset bubble, as the recent run up has been paid for with improved earnings. For the S&P 500 SPX, +0.55% , price-to-earnings ratios are roughly in line with a year ago and historical averages. Earnings outlook is strong — if the market is ahead of itself, it is not by much.
The Trump administration has convinced businesses that Washington regulators will at least take lunch and summer vacations and not be looking for every available opportunity to bite at their heels. Powell’s moderate responses to Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s pointed questions during his confirmation hearings and President Donald Trump’s appointment of Randal Quarles as vice chairman for bank supervision indicate that more relief is on the way for banks.
Don’t think bankers have a free ride. Clearly, the thrust of the Trump administration is toward strict enforcement of the rules it keeps on the books — ask AT&TT, +1.55% about its planned merger with Time-Warner TWX, +0.38% or Wells Fargo WFC, -0.08% about its transgressions.
However, bankers are no longer seen in the halls of regulatory power as DNA-determined malefactors incapable of responsible behavior.
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