Jimmy Carter And The Energy Crisis That Never Happened

Forty years ago tonight, President Jimmy Carter delivered his Address to the Nation on National Energy Policy, better known as the “Moral Equivalent of War” speech. Seated behind his ornate desk in the Oval Office and wearing a sober pinstriped suit, he offered a litany of dark predictions:

“The oil and natural gas we rely on for 75 percent of our energy are running out.”

“Unless profound changes are made to lower oil consumption, we now believe that early in the 1980s the world will be demanding more oil than it can produce.”

“World oil production can probably keep going up for another six or eight years. But some time in the 1980s it can’t go up much more. Demand will overtake production. We have no choice about that.”

“We can’t substantially increase our domestic production…”

“Within ten years we would not be able to import enough oil—from any country, at any acceptable price.”

“If we fail to act soon, we will face an economic, social and political crisis that will threaten our free institutions.”

Congress declined to adopt much of Carter’s programme (though it did embrace such lemons as expanding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and creating the Synthetic Fuels Corporation). Instead, federal lawmakers chose to (somewhat) deregulate energy, giving more freedom to market incentives to direct private energy exploration, production, and conservation. Four decades later, the world is consuming nearly 100 million barrels of oil a day, up from 60 million in 1977, at an inflation-adjusted price little different than it was 40 years ago. U.S. natural gas production is booming. Armageddon, so far, has not occurred.

It’s tempting to ridicule Carter for these gloomy claims. But he was hardly a fool and his proposals and predictions echoed those made by esteemed energy experts and world leaders at that time—and at various times before and since. The earliest expert prediction I’ve found that the world would soon run out of oil was John Strong Newberry in 1875. The most recent chorus was about a decade ago. Expect a similar chorus five to 10 years from now, and again about 20–25 years from now, and again about a half-century from now, and again…