Jobs +103,000, Well Under Lowest Estimate

The BLS reports March jobs as +103,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Revisions were negative.

Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down from +239,000 to +176,000, and the change for February was revised up from +313,000 to +326,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 50,000 less than previously reported.

Initial Reaction

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 103,000. The household survey (Table A) shows employment fell by 37,000. Once again there are wild swings and divergences between the two surveys.

The Econoday consensus estimate was +175,000 jobs in a range of 112,000 to 225,000.

One has to wonder if last month’s whopping 326,000 establishment survey report was an outlier.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +103,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: -37,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: -121,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: -141,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: +338,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 to 4.1% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 8.0% – Household Survey

Civilian Non-institutional Population: +163,000

Civilian Labor Force: -158,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: +323,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.9– Household Survey

Employment Report Statement

Payroll employment edges up by 103,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Employment increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted