Jobs Rebound Following Hurricane Dip: Jobs +261,000; Unemployment 4.1%; Wages Stall

Jobs rebounded following the hurricane-related dip as most expected. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%. However, the decline in the unemployment rate was fed by a drop in the labor force of 761,000. The number of employed persons actually fell by 484,000.

Initial Reaction

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 261,000.

However, employment fell by 484,000 (Table A). There have been wild swings in employment reporting.

Full-time employment (Table A-9) declined by 23,000 and part-time employment fell by 415,,000. The way the BLS calculates numbers you cannot add those two numbers together to get the total.

None of this ever adds up, but the BLS says it’s not supposed to. This month, like last month, was particularly wild.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +261,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: -484,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: -281,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: -369,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: -886,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 to 4.1% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: -0.4 to 7.9% – Household Survey

Civilian Noninstitutional Population: +204,000

Civilian Labor Force: -765,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: +968,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: -0.2 to 62.7 – Household Survey

Employment Report Statement

The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September; total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000). A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted