Jobs Report: +151K Jobs, Unemployment 4.9%; Significant Revisions

Initial Reaction

Following three consecutive month of strong jobs, today’s headline payroll numbers came down to earth. There were revisions in many preceding months; some months were up others down. The net effect was an overall gain, but the second half of the year was not as strong as the first. December jobs fell by 30,000 but November rose by 28,000 making the last two months a wash. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 188,000 jobs and the headline total was 151,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, the lowest since April 2008.

Revisions

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +151,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: +615,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: -113,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: -34,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: +68,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 at 4.9% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: +0.0 at 9.9% – Household Survey

Civilian Non-institutional Population: +461,000

Civilian Labor Force: +502,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: -41,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: +0.1 at 62.7 – Household Survey

Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, led by retail trade, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. Employment declined in private educational services, transportation and warehousing, and mining.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees was up 0.1 to 34.6 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was unchanged at 33.5 hours.