JPM “Shaves” First Half GDP By 0.5% Due To Weaker Durable Goods And Consumer Spending

Remember when 2016 was the year when the US economy was finally supposed to take off on “above trend” growth? Make that 2017.

Here is JPM’s chief economist Michael Feroli doing what banks are so good at doing: cutting their own US GDP growth forecasts.

Shave and a haircut, first half

We are shaving about a half percentage point off of our estimate for first half US real GDP growth. We estimate Q1 GDP increased at a 1.2% annualized pace (down from 2.0%), and we project Q2 GDP growth at 2.0% (down from 2.25% prior). The downward revision to Q1 follows a string of softer source data, starting with the February durable goods report and punctuated by the downward revision to January real consumer spending.

The downward revision to Q2 owes to slightly lower expectations for consumer spending — thanks to the rebound in gasoline prices and the corresponding hit to real disposable income — as well as to somewhat weaker momentum on capital spending.