Just days ago Citi pronounced, much to the chagrin of the status-quo-hugging Fed faithful, that given the turn in corporate profits (and concerns over margin sustainability) that the chance of a recession in the US had risen to 65% (and on that basis had a bearish outlook for US equities). Now, as other major sell-side shops jump on the equity un-bullish narrative, JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli warns that in the past, a low unemployment rate, rising compensation, falling margins, and elevated durables investment have historically signaled an elevated risk that an expansion is nearing its end… and puts the probability of a US recession within 3 years at 76%. Of course, you do not need to worry, because Janet Yellen said this is not true (though failed to provide here reasoning).
Just days ago Citi pronounced, the cumulative probability of a recession in the next year rises to 65%.
In the US our chief concern is margin sustainability. Corporate profits as a share of GDP have been at all-time highs, which is just another way of saying the rewards to labour have been at all-time lows. But change may be afoot in the form of modest labor market tightening in the US.
It is too soon to see this show up in core (ex Fins, Energy and Materials) margins in the US but that may be where things go. Modest nominal wage acceleration combined with global disinflation (price taking by US firms) and lack of productivity growth may mean margins come under pressure from labour costs.
And now, JPMorgan’s Mike Feroli raises a red flag warning that:
Our longer-run indicators, however, continue to suggest an elevated risk that the expansion is nearing its end, and our preferred model now puts the probability of recession within three years at an eye-catching 76%.
As he details…
We recently developed two sets of models for assessing the risk that the next recession will start within given horizons. One was focused on high-frequency indicators and aimed to measure the probability of a recession starting within six months. The other aimed to capture longer-run cycle indicators that suggest an elevated background risk of the expansion ending within horizons of one to five years.
Table 1 updates our models’ assessments of the probability of recession beginning within six months from our recent note. When we first wrote, only manufacturing sentiment was signaling an above-average probability of imminent recession. But recent weakening in the Richmond Fed services survey and the ISM nonmanufacturing index have now pushed the nonmanufacturing sentiment probability up somewhat as well. Nonetheless, estimates that combine signals from multiple indicators continue to predict little overall recession risk, and we conclude that the chance of a recession beginning within six months is 5% or less.
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