July 2017 Manufacturing New Orders Decline

US Census says manufacturing new orders slowed. Out analysis agrees – but the rolling averages improved.

Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales

According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was civilian aircraft that caused the decline. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which continues to improve

Remember the headline numbers are not inflation adjusted..

Backlog of orders continues in expansion year-over-year.

The seasonally adjusted manufacturing new orders is down 3.3 % month-over-month.

Market expected (from Bloomberg / Econoday) month-over-month growth of -3.4 % to -0.2 % (consensus -3.1 %).

Manufacturing unfilled orders decreased 0.3 % month-over-month, and up 0.7 % year-over-year.

Econintersect Analysis:.

Unadjusted manufacturing new orders growth decelerated 4.0 % month-over-month, and up 5.4 % year-over-year.

Unadjusted manufacturing new orders (but inflation adjusted) up 3.1 % year-over-year.

Three month rolling new order rolling averages was up 0.8 % month-over-month, and is up 7.0 % year-over-year.

Unadjusted manufacturing unfilled orders growth was unchanged month-over-month, and up 0.7 % year-over-year

As a comparison to the inflation adjusted new orders data, the manufacturing subindex of the Federal Reserves Industrial Production growth down 0.1 % month-over-month, and up 1.3 % year-over-year.

Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Value of New Orders – All (red line, left axis), All except Defense (green line, left axis), All with Unfilled Orders (orange line, left axis), and all except transport (blue line, right axis)