In the usual post-payrolls economic data lull, the focus this week will be on North America, with Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony on Wednesday alongside the the BoC, as well as a Friday data deluge in the US including CPI & retail sales. A 25bp hike this week from the Bank of Canada is expected, although the central bank may choose to wait until October. Additionally, there are monetary policy meetings in Korea, Malaysia, Chile, Peru & Israel.

All eyes on the US: Fed Chair Yellen delivers her semi-annual testimony to Congress this week. According to DB, it will be fascinating to see whether Mrs Yellen chooses this week’s semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday to reinforce the recent more hawkish global central bank speak or whether she tries to pull things back a little. DB expect her to reinforce the message from the June 14 post-FOMC press conference and continue to guide the market towards an announcement of the beginning of balance sheet normalisation at the September 20 meeting as well as a rate hike by year-end, potentially resulting in further bond selling. BofA will be looking at how Chair Yellen describes her concern about financial stability risks, at how she talks about progress towards the dual mandate and for any details about balance sheet policy. She will also likely be asked questions about fiscal policy and financial market regulation, Our US Economic Weekly describes our expectations in more detail.

US inflation data will also draw attention, as will retail sales, both released on Friday. Many expect another soft core CPI print of 0.1% m/m in June.

Canada: Time to hike: The Bank of Canada will also be a key event this week. The recent avalanche of hawkish messages from the BoC, as well as from central bankers of advanced economies around the world, indicate that a hike is highly likely. A hike this week is our baseline, though the bank may also choose to wait until October. We have raised our CAD profile, but remain a little skeptical given valuation and recent moves in oil.

The week ahead in Emerging Markets: There are monetary policy meetings in Korea, Malaysia, Chile, Peru and Israel. We expect BCRP to cut the reference rate 25bp. We also have several China macro releases.

A snapshot look at the global week ahead

  • Key Events: – Monday: Chinese Inflation Data, all in line with expectations (Jun)
  • Wednesday: Fed Chair Yellen testifies to the US House Financial Services Committee, Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Decision, UK Labour Market Data (May/Jun)
  • Thursday: Chinese Trade Balance (Jun)
  • Friday: US CPI (Jun), US Retail Sales (Jun)

    • DB with a more detailed look at the week ahead:

  • We’re kicking off the week today in Germany where first out the gate we’ll get the latest trade data. Following that this morning we are due to receive the latest Bank of France business sentiment reading and Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro area. It’s a typically quiet post-payrolls day for data in the US with the June labour market conditions index and May consumer credit reading the only data due.
  • Tuesday looks equally quiet with no releases of note in Europe and just the NFIB small business optimism, JOLTS job openings and wholesale inventories data due in the US.
  • Turning to Wednesday, the early data is due out of Japan where PPI will be released. In the UK we are due to receive the May and June employment data while Euro area industrial production for May will also be released. In the US the Fed’s Beige Book release is all that is due.
  • On Thursday we’re kicking off in China with the June trade data. In Europe the final June CPI reports in Germany and France will be due. The BoE will also release its latest credit conditions and bank liabilities survey. In the US on Thursday we’ll get June PPI, initial jobless claims and the June monthly budget statement.
  • We end the week in Asia on Friday with May industrial production data. In Europe we’ll get the May trade balance for the Euro area before we finish the week in the US with June CPI, retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing, July University of Michigan consumer sentiment and May business inventories.

    • A focus on North America courtesy of RanSquawk

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