First published Sat Dec 12 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: As I have said on numerous occasions, there are several patterns that I find hard to rely upon in any chart, and one of those is a truncated bottom. This is the only way in which one would be able to consider that the metals have completed their 4+ year correction. Therefore, I still have no solid evidence that a long term bottom has yet been struck, especially since our ideal targets set years ago have still not been struck, even though our minimum targets have. Furthermore, the action seen off the recent lows this past week is not strongly suggestive that the final bottom has been struck.
Along those lines, the highs struck this past week may be counted as the top of corrective waves in the final decline to lower lows, but due to Friday’s action, I am even questioning that potential. From a micro-count perspective, if the metals and miners are not lower on Monday, and immediately on their way to breaking the lows they made on Friday, we are likely heading up much higher in a larger corrective manner. This means any certain bottom call will not be made until 2016. In fact, this has happened for the last 3 years, where, each time, the metals have had the opportunity to complete this long term correction going into the end of the year, and, each time, they have chosen to prolong it by avoiding a final decline to complete their immediate bottoming pattern. It is almost like the metals have been teasing us.
Furthermore, since the bull market must resume with a 5 wave structure off any bottom struck in the market, I am unable to even strongly consider that the bottom has been struck since the recent rise off the lows seems to count best as a 3 wave rally. That is not strongly suggestive that any lasting bottom has been made. Yet, there are several patterns which may be in play, especially in the GDX, if the market does not turn down strongly very early in the upcoming week. As you can see, we may still be topping in a wave iv, or we could be tracing out a larger a-b-c down, or even a larger degree wave 4 triangle. So, if no 5th wave down is seen in the upcoming week, we are going to need some patience in being able to determine how we drop to lower lows, which will likely be pushed out into the upcoming year yet again.
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