Latest Data Suggests Even More Downward Revisions To Earnings And GDP

t’s been two weeks since the last edition of our Monday Morning Kickoff, and while the first of those two weeks was rather quiet, by comparison, this past week has been filled with noise. The issue at hand is that noise level is going to swell this week into a near deafening roar as earnings season kicks into high gear.

Late last week we discussed many of the issues plaguing the market, the majority of which we identified to regular readers of the Monday Morning Kickoff and Tematica Investing subscribers, on the latest Cocktail Investing Podcast episode and in our view, it’s a great recap of the last several weeks and primer for what’s ahead.

During the last two weeks, we’ve seen the stock market bounce up and down with both oil and gold prices doing the same. Not so surprising given it was the calm before the 1Q 2017 earnings storm that kicks off this week and continues into early May.

As we alluded to above, with more than 2,000 corporate earnings reports on deck over the next two weeks, 1Q 2017 earnings will be in higher gear at a time when a growing amount of hard data points to a sharp slowdown in 1Q 2017 and a weak start to 2Q 2017. In addition to the regular economic data, there are other indicators, such as oil and gold prices, that are also signaling concern.

With those details in mind, let’s jump right into the data that has led us to conclude that we’ve only just begun to see the revision of earnings and GDP expectations — both headed in the wrong direction . . .

Pressure on Oil Prices

Over the last six months oil prices have vacillated between a low near $43 per barrel and $54, but more recently oil prices have been more volatile in the last 45 days. The latest blow in oil prices came following a report on Tuesday that, “US crude stockpiles fell less than expected in the latest week while gasoline stockpiles grew unseasonably” — not exactly something we want to hear as economists and others trim back their GDP forecasts.

Oil prices ended sharply lower on Friday, settling below $50 a barrel for the first time this month as signs of greater US output raised questions as to the potential impact of extended production cuts on the part of OPEC. Per Baker Hughes (BHI), the number of US oil rigs rose by another 5 to reach 688 and marked the 14th consecutive weekly increase.

Turning to Gold

Prices for gold traded off compared to last week, but with political tensions running high following the US bombing Syria and missile launches from North Korea, prices for the precious metal remain well above March levels. Year-to-date, gold prices have experienced a more pronounced move as the stock market soared in January and February, stretching valuations despite the weakening economic outlook. As we discussed on the latest edition of the Cocktail Investing podcast, we are seeing inflation metrics begin to roll over as the year over year comparisons ease and that could restrain gold prices in the near-term.

Back to that GDP Trimming

Perhaps the best representation of that GDP trimming can be found on page 3 of the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now 1Q 2017 GDP forecast, which showed a forecast as high as 3.4 percent in early February, only to fall over the ensuing weeks to 0.5 percent once we had the March housing starts and industrial production figures. Speaking of that March Industrial Production report, the headline figure of 0.5 percent for the month was better than expected.