March 11, 2016: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Improves But Still Negative

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – continued in negative territory. This index now spent 32 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week and are shown below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The February number (issued in March) shows slower economic growth.

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

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U.S. Inflation Gauge Grows in February

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 105.1 from an upwardly revised 103.4 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“The USFIG increased further in February to a 16-month high,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still relatively restrained, have perked up a bit lately.”

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February’s economy’s rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

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source: ECRI