Market Briefing For Tuesday, Sept 17

Image Source: UnsplashInitiating a ‘cutting cycle’ – comes after well-known anticipation of the Fed’s upcoming decisions, which generally have been made. So that’s why the idea of a short-term fling and selling squall ‘after the news’; but that’s aside from overall expectations that can lead to a relatively favorable equity environment into the start of 2025, but again allowance of a shakeout in the interim from new highs seems reasonable.There are other fundamental factors that could help certain big stocks. Just as an example, today’s Intel rollout slowing in Europe (but on-pace in the US) is offset by a deal today with Amazon Web Services, which seems significant. On top of that, Intel (INTC) got a 3 billion DoD contract for military chip purposes, and that’s fine. Make the idea of buying on any dip under 20 look decent so far; at the same time, it’s been viewed as a longer-term working for significant gains. That means less enthusiasm than when we added AMD over 5 years ago.Sure, we’d like to see some suppressed tech big-caps (Intel is one) rebound in time to assist an environment which doesn’t inhibit the appetite for smaller stocks. That might be true for Apple (AAPL) as well, which made more ‘Pro product’ in reports I’ve seen, which suggest demand is not dramatically lower this year as pertains to iPhone 16 (inventories for Pro and Pro Max are higher this year).So it’s really hard to guestimate. However, only the prior iPhone15 Pro & Max will run Apple Intelligence (which will roll-out slowly over the months ahead); otherwise Apple’s new ‘Ai’ with Chat GDP use, will require any iPhone 16’s. In this situation, the ‘regular’ iPhone 16 is a bigger jump in Ai than the Pro, which already can run it within IOS 18. Bigger demand now seems for 16 Pro/Max.One note if buying the iPhone 16: ‘if’ you happen to have American Express Platinum or Reserve cards (none below), and charge your monthly post-paid cellular service to that particular Amex card (not to any other), then you have damage, lost & theft coverage for your cell phone up to $800, with evidence of course. Not bad so ‘might’ crimp AppleCare and carrier insurance (product) sales ‘if’ people start to figure that out. Note that does not depend on whether an iPhone is actually purchased on the Amex card or any other card; although unsure if it works using Apple Card (that’s a Goldman Sachs MasterCard with no cellular product or insurance coverage unlike Amex and a few others).Just a hint for those getting iPhone 16, and might want to save a few bucks as far a post-paid plan from any carrier ‘without’ extra protections, versus paying Apple (or a cellular carrier) to protect it. (I’ve not researched this more deeply, so can’t speak to Chase or other cards.) As I happen to use a specific Amex cards for my cellular AT&T plan, it caught my attention and so thought I would share this apparently little known feature of certain Amex cards (or others).(P.S. NASA didn’t warn until today; that means it doesn’t matter; no solution.)Market X-ray: stocks remain basically on-hold; shuffling in record territory for the S&P but not many stocks, ahead of the FOMC Meeting coming right up. I am not negative on equity prospects for next year; just nothing you could see a flip-flop kind of profit-taking squall in the wake of the Fed’s upcoming cut.The coming cut is widely telegraphed, and debatable whether will be 25 or 50 basis points. If you noticed ‘fairly’ softer Oil and lower ‘grain’ prices primarily a result of lower demand from China, you might envision more favorable pricing data that gives a Fed more comfort in moving as they intended to cut anyway.There’s really no quantifiable market aspect to the apparent ‘second attempt’ to assassinate former President Trump. The suspect was positioned for what authorities describe as an ‘easy shot’ should Trump have played forward near the ‘6th hole green’ at his Country Club. At that point the gunman would have been only about 40 yards from where a Secret Service agent spotted the gun.Of course everyone ‘now’ says Trump deserves more protection; and that will happen. And yes I have read (conspiracy theories?) already about whether in prior years the ‘purported assassin suspect’ knew a lady with CIA ties, and for sure it’s impossible (at this point) to draw any particular motives beyond what is broadly being discussed in ‘mainstream’ news for now. Stocks weren’t even disturbed much in subsequent trading; and appear not influenced by this.One more point: today I updated numerous devices to latest versions of Apple software. Yes, IOS 18 seems identical as AI ‘services’ aren’t yet rolled-out. It’s software that will get your (AI ready iPhone 15 Pro or iPhone 16) ‘smarter next year’ than it is now; which has been noted elsewhere by early observers.What I did notice (that I’m unaware anyone has spotted) is in Apple ‘TV’ OS.. of course that’s for the Apple TV ‘box’, not the App, though it may work on the App as well, plus I believe AirPod Pros.. there is a useful new feature for a lot of folks bother by overwhelming loud noise or can’t easily differentiate voices.What is that? A selection in ‘Settings’ that let you suppress background sound making it easier to distinctly hear dialect / voices rather than background. This is likely a feature related to the (now FDA obtained) ‘hearing aid’ functionality they’d talked of for AirPods Pro, but notably I see this ‘noise cancellation’ (likely what it is) selection on Apple TV, which would be a useful improvement. (I just tried it and seems to cut out deeper sounds basically; probably wouldn’t like that in a movie, but in cases where it’s hard to decipher voices, probably.)Bottom-line: the optics this week center around the Fed’s meeting tomorrow; and of course the Wednesday rate-cut prospect (extent of cut). The market is pricing-in multiple cuts; but that doesn’t matter as much as real life ‘disinflation in key areas’, which ‘food and fuel’ clearly are and seem to be flattening a bit.For now it’s an interesting September, with more holding action in record S&P Index levels, with most stocks generally meandering based on their prospects or shifts among a few institutions. Aside Intel, little significant developments.More By This Author:Market Briefing For Monday, September 16
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