Market Fluctuations

My Swing Trading Approach

With the FOMC later today, I will take a conservative approach to the trading day before us. If the market cooperates today, I won’t look to add more than one other long position.

Indicators

Volatility Index (VIX) – Only moved 1.8% and was relatively quiet. Hardly a move out of it despite the three days of selling in the stock market.

T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): Dropped an additional 2.4% yesterday and the lowest reading since 4/9/18. This is a huge problem, and I am quite honestly shocked that this bearish divergence continues to increase without the broader index falling apart.

Moving averages (SPX): Trading below the 5-day moving average. Possible to see a test of the 10-day today.

Sectors to Watch Today

Energy gapped higher, to form an exhaustion gap. I would expect a pullback here in the days ahead. Financials are an absolute mess still to trade. They can’t find any support whatsoever, or sustain its momentum. Technology looking to breakout of its month long base. Industrials has pulled back two straight days – look for support at the 20-day moving average.

My Market Sentiment

With the FOMC Statement and press conference today, and the Rod Rosenstein meeting tomorrow with Trump, I expect we’ll see some market fluctuations as a result. We are at a point technically, where if things don’t go in the market’s favor, that the rising trend-line off of the June lows, shown below, will break.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis