Market In The Hands Of A Balloon Twister

People who create balloon animals are called Twisters. To attract attention, twisters appear clown-like, dressing in bold colors. Some twisters inflate their balloons with their own lungs. However, many use a pump. When I think of the market and its main influencers, I cannot help but think “clownish twisters.” Each day, the influencers fill the news with acts that shock some and delight others. The influencers, for the most part, inflate news with their own lungs. Some, however, resort to pumping.

The litany of balloon animal’s twisted today includes,

A strong NY Empire State Manufacturing Index-best since 2009. Shipments, employment and order strong.

North Korea- Japan’s Prime Minister offering his fear that NK heightened to levels never seen before

“Obamacare is finished, it’s dead, gone…”-Trump will fix healthcare-

NAFTA jitters- “Don’t worry, we still have time” Mexican Government

Iraq-Kurdish tensions-drove oil prices up

Opioid Crisis-wait until next week for the announcement.

Major tax reform-if you can wait until December…

Fed Chairman-Taylor impresses Trump-yet he advocates for higher rates-Yellen next up on Thursday.

Netflix reports robust earnings, soaring after hours to new all-time highs

Investors continue to crowd into the top technology stocks. Are they twisting a T-Rex balloon? Examining the Modern Family, yesterday, the Russell 2000 (IWM), the Transportation Sector (IYT), and Retail (XRT) all closed the day red. Transportation has room before we call “top”. 176 is the top of the monthly channel resistance line it cleared in September, now key support to hold. The Russell 2000, if breaks 149 has room to 146. However, if both IYT and IWM test lower levels, we look to Biotechnology as our potentially twisted mutant animal. Should Trump declare a real war on opioids, look for a monthly close under 327. That will make any further rally seem less likely. Speaking of opioids, Granny Retail reminds me of how anesthetized the public has become to any potential bad news. Volatility has disappeared. Complacency exists like an overdose of oxycodone. Folks, I’ve been trading for a really long time. Back in the day on the commodities exchanges, we loved a good rumor to buy or sell into. Our goal was to exit once the news refuted the rumor.