Market Indices Push Up Into Nosebleed Territory

As we move into the 101st month of the current economic expansion, the respective stock market indices have continued their climb further into nosebleed territory. On Thursday the S&P 500 avoided its first back to back daily declines in about a month after a rally into the close pushed it back into positive territory for the day, while today the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a new all-time high. The headlines are all about ebullience in the markets, but in this week’s wrap up we’ll point out that there are plenty of yellow flags waving.

This week was seriously action-packed from finally getting a tax bill proposal that the majority of House Republicans can support, to the issuance of indictments for Paul Manafort, Rick Gates and George Papadopoulos, to President Trump announcing current Fed Governor Jerome Powell as his pick for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve and yet another brutal terror attack in Lower Manhattan. Mr. Powell will need to go through the formal Senate confirmation process, (otherwise known as politicians competing for airtime while sneaking in wholly unrelated topics they want to be seen as caring about and showing how they don’t really understand monetary policy) but is expected to be approved by a decent margin. If the current chair Janet Yellen does not stay on as a Governor, four out of seven Fed Board seats will have vacancies, giving the Trump team an unusually profound ability to dramatically reshape the Fed. If the markets have benefited to the extent we suspect from the Fed’s policies, a change in tenor is worth a close watch.

On Thursday Apple’s stock gained over 3% after posting fourth-quarter results that beat expectations by a material margin at $2.07 EPS versus the consensus for $1.87 — and that doesn’t include sales for the iPhone X. We couldn’t be more pleased to have added Apple to the Tematica Investing Select List back on October 30th as shares have gained over 6.0% since then as of mid-day Friday. Of course, we’re even more pleased by the move higher in Disruptive Technologies company Universal Display (OLED) shares over the last year, which are up almost 185% since we added it to the Select List. While today that company is a “bullet” play to Apple’s smartphone adoption of organic light emitting diode displays, as that technology expands into TVs, automotive lighting and general lighting, we see OLED shares as just getting going.